Skip to content

Market Minutes for the week of February 13th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of February 13th: “Golf is a game in which you yell ‘fore,’ shoot six and write down five” – Paul Harvey The U.S. stock market continues on its remarkable run, making new high after new high. Yes, the animal spirits unleashed by last fall’s election, are still at work. But according to Jim Cramer, there are other factors at work as well: “Let’s start with the transports. It’s one of the oldest theories when it comes to stocks that the transports have to confirm the Dow before you can trust a market, meaning that the transports have to make a new high along with the Dow before you can believe there’s some solid grounding … The stocks of the rails, the truckers, the freight forwarders and the airlines are leading the way and that shows the rally is backed by a burst in commerce. Remember
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of February 6th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of February 6th: “If you’re going through hell – keep going” – Sir Winston Churchill So far in 2017, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off to a good start, up about 1.50%. It feels good to be sure but when you look below the headline print, just four stocks of the Dow 30 are responsible for 98% of the gain, they are: Apple, IBM, Boeing and Visa. Apple itself has accounted for nearly a third of Dow’s rise in 2017. Last year, the Dow outgained the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite where shares of Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth Group, IBM and 3M counted for 46% of last year’s 13% gain. “A 50-project list outlining President Donald Trump’s infrastructure priorities surfaced last week. The projects on the list, titled ‘Priority List: Emergency and National Security Projects,’ would cost about $140 billion and employ the equivalent of
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of January 30th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of January 30th: “Dogs’ lives are too short. Their only fault, really.”  — Agnes Sligh Turnbull. Jim Cramer: “But what I am saying is that non-business surprises out of the White House can cause some people to worry about the state of things – whether they should worry or not. That worry could translate into thinking that they are being too glib having a lot of money in the stock market, because  we have seen the stock market have gigantic declines and we know it isn’t safe like cash. So why not go into cash and forget trying to benefit from potential opportunities? Of course, only in a completely gonzo moment of contention in this country would I even have to explain that logic. But we are in a gonzo, Hunter Thompson-esque moment for certain, and I think that one of the reasons this market
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of January 23rd

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of January 23rd: “I never knew the game of baseball was so easy until I went into the broadcasting booth.” – Mickey Mantle America’s new Commander in Chief is wasting no time digging into his agenda. So far by executive order, he has put a freeze on government hiring (EX military), frozen any new EPA contracts and put out a media gag order on the EPA, removed the U.S. from the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), signaled the intent to revisit NAFTA, suspended any pending new government mandated regulations, targeted sanctuary cities, legal immigration and the Wall. The stock market loves what it sees so far and we could reignite the “animal spirits” if his pace of action continues. January 25th, 2017 … the DJIA breaks 20,000 for the first time ever. When I got into this business, the DJIA was 800. My how time flies!
Read more…

Wealth Notes: Practical Estate Planning From An Advisor’s Viewpoint

by Cascade

Cascade Investment Group, Inc. is more than 20 years old and our advisors worked with clients for many years before our firm started. We have many long-term relationships with clients; at times with multiple members and generations of the same family. We value our association and position as a trusted advisor with so many people. An unfortunate part of our work involves the times in our clients’ lives when someone passes away or becomes incapacitated. These events can come suddenly or happen over time. Either way, we have found that proper planning can alleviate some of the emotional strain caregivers and survivors feel and help make next steps easier to handle. Good estate planning gives time to grieve, to spend with family and to remember the recently deceased rather than fill that time with financial and legal issues that can be unsettling and difficult to discuss. Good estate planning accomplishes
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of January 16th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of January 16th: “A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits.”  – Richard M. Nixon Jim Cramer is fond of saying that if you want to know where the economy is, listen to what the three biggest banks have to say when they report earnings. Well the “Big 3” all reported last Friday and here is what they had to say: JP Morgan: “[We] ended the year with record balances of $189 billion, up 14% year on year, with growth in both commercial and industrial and commercial real estate. Credit performance remains strong, with a net charge-off rate of 11 basis points driven by a couple of oil and gas names largely reserved for. In commercial real estate we had no net charge-offs and we reiterate three quarters of this portfolio is multi-family lending.” Bank of America: “Consumer banking led with 8% growth. We continue to see growth in residential real
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of January 9th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of January 9th: “The taste of defeat has a richness of experience all its own.” — Bill Bradley The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) says that small business confidence in the U.S. rose to a 12-year high in December. The index of small business confidence rose to 105.8, the highest reading since December 2004. NFIB economist Bill Dunkelberg: “In this month’s report, we are also finding evidence that higher optimism is leading to increased business activity, such as capital spending and investment.” The Commerce Department said that U.S. wholesale inventories rose by 1.0% in November, the largest monthly increase since November of 2014. This number suggests that inventory investment would again support stronger 4th quarter GDP growth, maybe close to 3%. The Commerce Department said that retail sales in December rose by 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimated. Auto sales were up 2.4%. Online sales
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of January 2nd

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of January 2rd: “Ninety-nine percent of failures come from people who have the habit of making excuses.” — George Washington Carver The five best performing assets in 2016:  1.) Brazilian stock market +68.9%. 2.) Brent crude oil +52.5%. 3.) Russian stock market +51.0%. 4.) WTI crude oil +45.3%. 5.) Sugar +27.9%. The five worst performing assets in 2016:  1.) Cocoa -33.1%. 2.) Chinese stock market -18.3%. 3.) British pound/U.S. dollar -16.9%. 4.) Wheat -13.8%. 5.) Italian stock market – 13.4%. Other notables:  European stock market (Stoxx 600) -4.9%;  iShares 20+ year U.S. Treasury bond  ETF -1.4%;  Japanese stock market +3.8%;  S&P 500 +9.5%;  Nasdaq +7.5%; DJIA +13.4;  High-grade copper +16.5%. The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose to 98.2 in December, the highest reading since January of 2004. The Chicago PMI index fell by 3 points in December to 54.6 and
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of December 19th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of December 19th: “Tomorrow is the first blank page of a 365 page book. Write a good one.” – Brad Paisley (This one of my favorite quotes for an upcoming new year.) “2016 is no different than other years, but it does have a twist – The Orange Swan, in the form of President-elect Donald J. Trump” – Doug Kass Dow 20,000. What does that mean? What does that say? Nothing really, it is more of a psychological milestone than anything else since the DJIA is a collection of just 30 stocks (4 of which are responsible for 35% of the move up since the election). A move from 18,000 to 19,000 represents a 5.5% increase. A move from 19,000 to 20,000 is a 5% increase. That said, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to be the most watched measure of U.S. stock market performance
Read more…

Market Minutes for the week of December 12th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of December 12th: “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so sure of themselves, and wiser people are full of doubts.” – Bertrand Russell Why are interest rates and bond yields continuing to rise? 1.) The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are slowing their monthly flow of purchases. 2.) U.K central bank chair Mark Carney and Fed chair Janet Yellen have admitted that they are willing to tolerate higher inflation. 3.) The commodity bear market has ended as a year of immense supply cuts are finally filtering through. The Journal of Commerce of industrial materials index is at the highest level since June of 2015 and is up 29% year over year. 4.) The Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker was at 3.9% in October, the highest level in 8 years. 5.) Foreign governments remain aggressive sellers
Read more…