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Market Minutes for the week of April 3rd

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of April 3rd: “The Doomsayers have always had their uses, since they trigger the coping mechanism that often prevents the events they forecast.” – Walter Wriston James DePorre (from March 31st): “The first quarter of 2017 comes to an end today much in the same way it started. Back in January, many bears were anticipating that the inauguration of President Trump would produce a “sell the news” response.  When that didn’t occur, they started to predict a “sell the news” response to a Fed interest rate hike and when that didn’t play out, the expectation was that there would be a selloff on the inability of Congress to pass fiscal policy. The story of the quarter has been a constant flow of bearish narratives that are never realized. While the arguments are very compelling and the media adds a dose of hysteria about President Trump,
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Market Minutes for the week of March 27th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of March 27th: “If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?” – John Wooden Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst for The Lindsey Group: “Can we all assume that altering the U.S. tax code along the lines of the hopes and wishes created on November 8th just got much more challenging. Paul Ryan on Friday said ‘Yes, this does make tax reform more difficult but doesn’t make it impossible.’ I have no doubt that taxes will be cut to some extent but we all know that it’s the tax increases needed to pay for them (no more hoped for savings from overhauling the ACA) that remains very controversial and now politically we’ve seen there are no slam dunks for DJT … Bottom line, I am really disappointed that the ACA is not going to change for
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Market Minutes for the week of March 20th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of March 20th: “Always borrow money from a pessimist. He won’t expect it back.” – Oscar Wilde Where do we start? This week we have had these headlines: Every investigative body of government saying they see no signs of an illegal wiretap of Trump Tower by Obama. The FBI director confirming an investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. A Washington Post article referring to potential criminal activity between a disgraced ex-leader of Ukraine and former Trump campaign aide Paul Manafort. Talk of not enough GOP votes to pass the GOP healthcare plan. Trump creates more enemies as he threatens Republican lawmakers with the loss of their seats if they don’t play ball on the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. The attachment of the controversial “Border Tax” to the wider tax reform legislation with the worry it will derail tax reform. This is not
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Blueprints: Three Simple Strategies to Achieve Your Goals

by Cascade

What are your big ambitions in life? Do you have strategies in place to make them happen? The Blueprints process helps families with a special needs member improve their financial and legal lives so that they can create the best life possible for themselves and their loved one with a developmental or intellectual disability. The first two Building Blocks of the Blueprints planning process have you write down your dreams and goals and prioritize them. Through these Building Blocks, we recommend you find strategies to keep these goals present and alive in your daily life. There are a few strategies that I have used that worked well for me. Note cards. This is a simple strategy. Write down your most important goal on a notecard and review this card every day. Ideally, you look at the card as soon as you wake up, before you fill your head with all
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Market Minutes for the week of March 13th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of March 13th: “I’ve learned…That to ignore the facts does not change the facts.” — Andy Rooney Jim Cramer, commenting on the “slow growth economy” he keeps hearing about: “I tire of these boilerplate anti-empirical judgments. If you are saying these things, if you are mouthing them as if they are gospel because they have been gospel for so long, you have to wake up and start listening to the people I put on Mad Money. Hamid Moghadam, the CEO of Prologis, the giant developer of distribution centers, is doing everything he can to keep up with all the business he can … He’s putting buildings up as fast as he can because of e-commerce and the fact that e-commerce needs three times the space of regular commerce, because of all of those bulky boxes the stuff comes in … Nucor is the largest steel
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Market Minutes for the week of March 6th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of March 6th: “It took me seventeen years to get three thousand hits in baseball. I did it in one afternoon on the golf course.” – Hank Aaron (Hall of Famer and long-time home run king) Is the Trump rally over? Is it time to run for cover? These two questions are at the forefront of investors’ minds right now. While is seems clear that some of the Trump euphoria has evaporated, it is probably accurate to say that U.S. stocks are fully valued based on 4th quarter earnings. First quarter economic data so far has been mostly positive and supportive of these valuations. While I don’t foresee a nasty correction at this point, it appears more likely that the markets will move sideways for a while as the new administration gets used to Washington and the process of governing. For stocks to move meaningfully
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Market Minutes for the week of February 27th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of February 27th: “No persons are more frequently wrong than those who will not admit they are wrong” – Francois De La Rochefoucauld Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist of U.S. Equity Strategy, at CFRA: “If you need additional encouragement that a bear market is not just around the corner, history again may offer some more virtual Valium.” In 27 of the past 72 years, since 1945, he notes the S&P has realized gains in January and February, with the stock index finishing up for the year (on a total-return basis) in every one of those years.  In those years, the average increase was 24% and the gauge in the remaining 10 months 25 of 27 times was ahead. Investor’s Intelligence which measures the sentiment of market professionals currently puts the percentage of bulls at 63.1%. This is a level not seen since 1987, the year
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Market Minutes for the week of February 20th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of February 20th: “If you can spend a perfectly useless afternoon in a perfectly useless manner, you have learned how to live.” – Lin Yutang Important: As many of you know, during the process of switching our phone and internet service from Comcast to CenturyLink, we temporarily lost service for a day and a half. We are now back up and running and everything seems to have returned to normal. Cascade Investment Group would like to express our gratitude for your patience and understanding as we worked our way through this unexpected and unfortunate series of issues. Blaine Rollins, Founder and CEO of 361 Capital: “While politics and the new government’s agenda is still very much in the news, investor interest last week shifted to the bigger picture. Good economic data continues to hit the tape along with better-than-expected corporate earnings growth and outlooks. Rising
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Market Minutes for the week of February 13th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of February 13th: “Golf is a game in which you yell ‘fore,’ shoot six and write down five” – Paul Harvey The U.S. stock market continues on its remarkable run, making new high after new high. Yes, the animal spirits unleashed by last fall’s election, are still at work. But according to Jim Cramer, there are other factors at work as well: “Let’s start with the transports. It’s one of the oldest theories when it comes to stocks that the transports have to confirm the Dow before you can trust a market, meaning that the transports have to make a new high along with the Dow before you can believe there’s some solid grounding … The stocks of the rails, the truckers, the freight forwarders and the airlines are leading the way and that shows the rally is backed by a burst in commerce. Remember
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Market Minutes for the week of February 6th

by Cascade

Market Minutes for the week of February 6th: “If you’re going through hell – keep going” – Sir Winston Churchill So far in 2017, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off to a good start, up about 1.50%. It feels good to be sure but when you look below the headline print, just four stocks of the Dow 30 are responsible for 98% of the gain, they are: Apple, IBM, Boeing and Visa. Apple itself has accounted for nearly a third of Dow’s rise in 2017. Last year, the Dow outgained the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite where shares of Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth Group, IBM and 3M counted for 46% of last year’s 13% gain. “A 50-project list outlining President Donald Trump’s infrastructure priorities surfaced last week. The projects on the list, titled ‘Priority List: Emergency and National Security Projects,’ would cost about $140 billion and employ the equivalent of
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